Cognitive science has identified several cognitive processes that underpin thinking and decision-making. Understanding these processes will improve the efficacy of scanning, foresight, and vision-building.

These cognitive devices include mental models (internalized system maps), mental movies and simulations (for development of scenarios and strategies), inference processes (that identify emergent patterns and explore implications) and assumptions (that summarize and consolidate thinking).

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Some key points that shape my thinking about foresight:

• Mental models are our personal internal representation of external reality based on our education, experience, biases and beliefs. They evolve through reasoning and experience. 

• Mental models and mental movies are key tools we use every day to understand a situation (or system), explore how it could evolve, identify alternatives and make decisions.

• In our mental movies, we run hypothetical scenarios where we explore options and assess pros and cons. These scenarios can occur as word-based narrative and/or visual movies depending on our familiarity with the system. 

• A core objective of strategic foresight is to help people surface their existing mental models and use foresight to develop more robust mental models and strategically useful mental simulations to support decision-making.

• People are more likely to own and trust the foresight if their mental model has been explicitly engaged and evolved through the foresight process.